The scope of the issues that Crimean officials would be able to officially decide on their own - even if their Russian counterparts were looking over their shoulders - would have to be negotiated between Simferopol and Kiev, or at least accepted by Kiev. Crimea would formally remain a part of Ukraine. Ukraine would be a confederal state where at least one of the component parts would control some elements of foreign policy, rather than a federal state where only the central government has authority over international affairs. This autonomy would include not just choices about domestic policies but about some aspects of foreign policy as well. The best the United States and Western Europe can hope for would be an outcome in which Crimea is not formally detached from Ukraine, but has a very high degree of autonomy. So there will not be a return to the status quo ante.
There will be a vote in Crimea on Sunday on whether to split from the Ukraine and join Russia. Given Western European dependence on Russian energy resources, the extent of any economic sanctions would be limited in any event. Generalized economic sanctions would have the most serious consequences for those parts of the Russian population, such as highly educated younger people living in the major cities, who do not support Putin anyway. Putin sits at the pinnacle of a state and party apparatus that can rely on energy revenues and support from many elements of Russian society. A rump Western Ukraine, however, would be more likely to firmly attach itself to the West than a united Ukraine, with its Russian-leaning east.Įconomic sanctions, even extensive sanctions against Russia, will not alter Putin’s current course of action. The percentage of Russian speakers, more than 50 percent in some areas, is far higher in the east. Russia, however, will not want to detach eastern Ukraine from the rest of the country.
Backing down at this point would undermine the tough image that Putin has so carefully cultivated. Putin will also want to satisfy the aspirations of his core constituents, who see Ukraine as closely aligned with, if not part of, Russia.
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